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D.R. Horton's Q1 Earnings Preview: What Investors Must Know Now?
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Key Takeaways
DHI expects Q1 revenue of $6.3B-$6.8B, down from $7.61B a year ago on softer home closings.
Lower ASPs, rate-driven demand shifts, and higher lot costs are expected to pressure gross margins.
Backlog units and value are forecast to grow modestly, up 2.8% and 1.1% year over year, respectively.
D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI - Free Report) is slated to report results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Dec. 31, 2025) on Jan. 20, before the opening bell. The quarter’s performance is expected to reflect a careful balancing act between sustaining volumes and navigating affordability-driven demand constraints.
In the last quarter, the company’s earnings missed Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.6%, while the total revenues beat the same by 2.4%. However, both metrics declined 22% and 3.2% from the year-ago figures.
Markedly, D.R. Horton reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average surprise being 3.5%.
How Are Estimates Placed for D.R. Horton Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) has declined to $1.96 from $1.97 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a decline of 24.9% from the year-ago EPS of $2.61.
The consensus mark for revenues is $6.71 billion, indicating a 11.9% year-over-year decline.
D.R. Horton’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues are likely to have been weighed down by a combination of demand-side and pricing-related headwinds. Elevated mortgage rates relative to historical norms continued to pressure affordability, keeping many potential buyers cautious and limiting traffic despite seasonal incentives. Management has repeatedly highlighted that consumer sentiment remains fragile, with rate volatility pushing buyers “on and off the fence,” which is likely to have constrained organic demand during the typically slower December quarter. Also, lower average selling prices (ASPs) for homes delivered is an added headwind, reflecting a deliberate focus on affordability and entry-level offerings.
The company anticipates the quarter’s total revenues to be between $6.3 billion and $6.8 billion compared with $7.61 billion reported a year ago.
Under the Homebuilding segment (which contributed 92% of fiscal 2025 total revenues), revenues are expected to have declined due to a decrease in homes closed. The company expects total homes closed to be between 17,100 and 17,600 units during the fiscal first quarter compared with 19,059 home closures made in the year-ago quarter.
Our model predicts Homebuilding revenues to decline 11.5% year over year to $6.34 billion. We also expect home closures to be 17,483 units, down 8.3% year over year.
We expect Rental Property (which contributed 4.8% of total revenues in fiscal 2025) revenues to be $186.4 million, which implies a 14.4% decline from the year-ago level.
On the other hand, our model predicts Forestar (which contributed 4.9% of total revenues in fiscal 2025) revenues to be $250.6 million, which indicates 0.1% growth from the year-ago level. We expect the Financial Services segment’s (which contributed 2.5% of total revenues in fiscal 2025) revenues to be $175.4 million, which indicates a decline of 3.8% from the year-ago level.
Margins
On the profitability side, home sales gross margin in the first quarter was expected to remain under pressure from elevated incentives and higher lot costs. Management has been clear that incentive levels would stay elevated into fiscal 2026, directly weighing on gross margins despite stable stick-and-brick costs.
Lot costs continued to represent a structural headwind, with management noting year-over-year increases that are expected to flow through closings for several quarters. While construction cycle times improved and inventory levels were reduced, the benefit to margins from efficiency gains was likely limited in the near term.
Partially offsetting these pressures, litigation-related costs that weighed on fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 margins were not expected to recur, providing some sequential relief. However, lower seasonal volumes and reduced SG&A leverage in the fiscal first quarter are likely to have constrained operating margin expansion. Softer contributions from rental operations during the period may have further tempered consolidated profitability, keeping bottom-line performance largely dependent on disciplined cost control rather than pricing power.
The company expects the home sales gross margin to be between 20% and 20.5%, down from 22.7% reported in the year-ago quarter. Our model predicts the metric to be about 20.1%, indicating a 260 basis points (bps) year-over-year contraction.
We expect the quarter’s homebuilding SG&A, as a percentage of revenues, to be 8.4% compared with 8.9% reported a year ago.
Orders & Backlog
For the fiscal first quarter, our model predicts net sales orders to increase by only 1% year over year to 18,012 units. The same for backlog is currently pegged at 11,314 units, which indicates 2.8% growth from a year ago. Our model predicts the value of the backlog to be $4.35 billion, implying growth of 1.1% year over year.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for DHI
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for D.R. Horton this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: DHI has an Earnings ESP of -8.67%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings
Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 30.9%. VSE’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 11.1%.
Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.55% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
For the quarter to be reported, Amentum’s earnings are expected to increase 3.9%. Amentum’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 8.6%.
Crawford & Company (CRD.B - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +19.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average negative surprise being 3.5%. Crawford’s earnings for the quarter are expected to increase 21.1%.
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D.R. Horton's Q1 Earnings Preview: What Investors Must Know Now?
Key Takeaways
D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI - Free Report) is slated to report results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Dec. 31, 2025) on Jan. 20, before the opening bell. The quarter’s performance is expected to reflect a careful balancing act between sustaining volumes and navigating affordability-driven demand constraints.
In the last quarter, the company’s earnings missed Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.6%, while the total revenues beat the same by 2.4%. However, both metrics declined 22% and 3.2% from the year-ago figures.
Markedly, D.R. Horton reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average surprise being 3.5%.
How Are Estimates Placed for D.R. Horton Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) has declined to $1.96 from $1.97 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a decline of 24.9% from the year-ago EPS of $2.61.
The consensus mark for revenues is $6.71 billion, indicating a 11.9% year-over-year decline.
D.R. Horton, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
D.R. Horton, Inc. price-eps-surprise | D.R. Horton, Inc. Quote
Factors Likely to Influence DHI’s Q1 Results
Revenues
D.R. Horton’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues are likely to have been weighed down by a combination of demand-side and pricing-related headwinds. Elevated mortgage rates relative to historical norms continued to pressure affordability, keeping many potential buyers cautious and limiting traffic despite seasonal incentives. Management has repeatedly highlighted that consumer sentiment remains fragile, with rate volatility pushing buyers “on and off the fence,” which is likely to have constrained organic demand during the typically slower December quarter. Also, lower average selling prices (ASPs) for homes delivered is an added headwind, reflecting a deliberate focus on affordability and entry-level offerings.
The company anticipates the quarter’s total revenues to be between $6.3 billion and $6.8 billion compared with $7.61 billion reported a year ago.
Under the Homebuilding segment (which contributed 92% of fiscal 2025 total revenues), revenues are expected to have declined due to a decrease in homes closed. The company expects total homes closed to be between 17,100 and 17,600 units during the fiscal first quarter compared with 19,059 home closures made in the year-ago quarter.
Our model predicts Homebuilding revenues to decline 11.5% year over year to $6.34 billion. We also expect home closures to be 17,483 units, down 8.3% year over year.
We expect Rental Property (which contributed 4.8% of total revenues in fiscal 2025) revenues to be $186.4 million, which implies a 14.4% decline from the year-ago level.
On the other hand, our model predicts Forestar (which contributed 4.9% of total revenues in fiscal 2025) revenues to be $250.6 million, which indicates 0.1% growth from the year-ago level. We expect the Financial Services segment’s (which contributed 2.5% of total revenues in fiscal 2025) revenues to be $175.4 million, which indicates a decline of 3.8% from the year-ago level.
Margins
On the profitability side, home sales gross margin in the first quarter was expected to remain under pressure from elevated incentives and higher lot costs. Management has been clear that incentive levels would stay elevated into fiscal 2026, directly weighing on gross margins despite stable stick-and-brick costs.
Lot costs continued to represent a structural headwind, with management noting year-over-year increases that are expected to flow through closings for several quarters. While construction cycle times improved and inventory levels were reduced, the benefit to margins from efficiency gains was likely limited in the near term.
Partially offsetting these pressures, litigation-related costs that weighed on fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 margins were not expected to recur, providing some sequential relief. However, lower seasonal volumes and reduced SG&A leverage in the fiscal first quarter are likely to have constrained operating margin expansion. Softer contributions from rental operations during the period may have further tempered consolidated profitability, keeping bottom-line performance largely dependent on disciplined cost control rather than pricing power.
The company expects the home sales gross margin to be between 20% and 20.5%, down from 22.7% reported in the year-ago quarter. Our model predicts the metric to be about 20.1%, indicating a 260 basis points (bps) year-over-year contraction.
We expect the quarter’s homebuilding SG&A, as a percentage of revenues, to be 8.4% compared with 8.9% reported a year ago.
Orders & Backlog
For the fiscal first quarter, our model predicts net sales orders to increase by only 1% year over year to 18,012 units. The same for backlog is currently pegged at 11,314 units, which indicates 2.8% growth from a year ago. Our model predicts the value of the backlog to be $4.35 billion, implying growth of 1.1% year over year.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for DHI
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for D.R. Horton this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: DHI has an Earnings ESP of -8.67%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings
Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
VSE (VSEC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 30.9%. VSE’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 11.1%.
Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.55% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
For the quarter to be reported, Amentum’s earnings are expected to increase 3.9%. Amentum’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 8.6%.
Crawford & Company (CRD.B - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +19.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average negative surprise being 3.5%. Crawford’s earnings for the quarter are expected to increase 21.1%.